市场分析认为,本轮金价突破背后最大推手或是对美联储降息的押注,其他推升因素还包括地缘政治因素,全球央行超强劲买入等。展望未来,分析师认为黄金明年仍能维持涨势,甚至不仅黄金,美联储降息预期下,市场将迎来一波跨资产涨势。
Capital.com驻墨尔本的高级市场分析师罗达(Kyle Rodda)也称:“市场正在大举押注美联储降息。并且,金价也会在经济衰退出现早期迹象时走高。这都会推动金价继续上涨。”
预计美联储降息预期叠加实际利率下跌,黄金在2024年和2025年可能会再创下新高,美联储将在2024年第一季度降息,如果今年12月暂停加息,这将继续证实美联储倾向于在最后一加后的6个月左右降息,全球央行也在持续购买黄金,对金价也有托底作用。
看法:
正在减缓经济活动,这是他迄今为止对本轮加息周期已结束发出的最强烈信号。但鲍威尔的评论同时也仍充满谨慎,此前鲍威尔讲话后,美债收益率的涨势只维持了几秒钟,随即继续下跌。COMEX黄金期金其后也在上周五升至历史新高。
網址:https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2023/12-04/10122272.shtml
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