连涨8周的美元突然跌了 发生了啥？

　　9月11日，美元对欧元、日元、英镑等十余种主要币种汇率出现全面下跌。其中，美元对日元、澳大利亚元汇率日内一度跌超1%。人民币对美元汇率飙升，在岸人民币日内大涨超800个基点。

　　在这次汇率下跌前，美元一段时间以来的表现都非常强势。

　　截至9月8日，在美联储加息等因素的支撑下，美元指数已经连续八周上涨。媒体报道称，这是美元指数近九年以来最长的连涨纪录，彭博美元现货指数甚至创下2005年问世以来最长周度上涨。

　　与此同时，其他货币纷纷承压贬值。欧元对美元汇率连跌八周，日元暴跌，卢比在历史低点附近徘徊，人民币汇率也创下2007年以来新低。

　　近日，在日本央行行长暗示日本可能在物价和工资持续上涨时结束负利率的“鹰派”发言影响下，日元率先开启了对美元的反弹。美元对日元汇率11日日内最低跌至145.90，跌超1%。

　　中国银行研究院高级研究员王有鑫对中新财经表示，由于日元在美元指数形成机制中占据较大份额，日元反弹也拉动美元指数从105以上的高位回落。不仅如此，随着美国通胀回落，美元加息周期基本临近尾声，也使得美元的支撑因素减弱。

中国全国外汇市场自律机制专题会议在北京召开。会议认为，随着中国稳经济、稳预期政策陆续出台落地，物价(CPI)同比增速触底转正，进出口数据好于预期，房地产政策效果逐步显现，消费明显回暖，科技创新不断突破，经济高质量发展持续推进，经济“进”的势能正在积聚，人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定具有坚实基础。

看法:近期美元指数回升速度较快，在美联储货币政策走势即将变化和美国经济下行压力增加背景下，未来继续大幅上升的可能性较小。进入11月之后，预计美国经济数据将加速回落，关于明年美联储降息的讨论将升温，届时美元指数将再次波动下调。

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